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Sea-level Rise Modeling Handbook: Resource. Guide for Coastal Land Managers, Engineers,

and Scientists

Ashley Fortune: Good afternoon from the. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services National Conservation

Training Center in Shepherdstown, West Virginia.. My name is Ashley Fortune and I would like

to welcome you to our webinar series held. in partnership with the US Geological Survey's

National Climate Change and Wildlife Science. Center.

The NCCWSC Climate Change, Science, and Management. webinar series highlights their sponsored

science projects related to climate change. impacts and adaptations, and aims to increase

awareness, and inform participants, like you,. about potential and predicted climate change

impacts on fish and wildlife.. I would like to welcome Emily Fort, Data and

Information Coordinator from the NCCWSC to. introduce today's speaker. Emily?

Emily Fort: Thanks, Ashley. Welcome, everybody.. We're happy to have you. Tom Doyle is an Ecosystem

Modeler with the USGS National Wetlands Research. Center in Lafayette, Louisiana.

His research focuses on ecosystem analysis. and modeling with a special emphasis on climate

reconstruction, forest growth and succession,. floodplain inundation, and landscape habitat

simulation.. He has developed dozens of simulation models

to investigate the role of natural and anthropogenic. disturbance and climate change on marsh/forested

wetland structure and diversity of coastal. and riverine ecosystems of the southeastern

United States and the Caribbean region.. His model applications focus on forecasting

effects of sealevel rise, hurricanes, altered. freshwater flow, wastewater use, drought and

related aspects of ecosystem management and. restoration. With that, I'm going to turn

it over to Tom. Thanks so much.. Tom Doyle: Thank you, Emily. I appreciate

that introduction. Today's presentation is. on "Sealevel Rise Modeling Handbook," that

was commissioned through funding with the. Southeast Climate Science Center for the benefit,

largely for the LCCs, Landscape Conservation. Cooperatives, and for DOI land managers and

biologists department wide.. The goal of the project was to effectively

produce a document that was an easy, magazinetype. read of an understanding of the science and

simulation models, related to sealevel rise. impacts on coastal ecosystems.

With that, I was given some other commission. of other assignments to help to do an effective

job, at least of trying not to make these. documents ultratechnical or designed for a

research scientist only, but for nonexperts.. That involved conducting a number of training

sessions or feedback sessions with various. agency offices across the northern Gulf Coast

that included both state and federal, at that. point.

I was trying to be more inclusive than just. DOI and expanded the effort to include other

agencies, Department of Defense, NOAA, NGOs. and everything else, inviting them to the

table and to tell me the kind of questions. and needs they had for resource material.

And understanding the whole matter of sealevel. rise from a climate change perspective, and

the type of exercises or assignments they. were engaged in, for which I could tailor

the handbook for their best benefit.. The idea was that they would be able to sit

down at a single read and read through it,. especially complete. It started out with the

goal of 20 pages, but it's more like 50, at. this point.

Right now, for those who are asking about. what the status of that product is, it's still

in USGS Fundamental Science Practices review. and is in final edits by our science publication

publishing network.. They tell me that they think that it may be

out in another month or two as they complete. some last minute or final edits and formatting

for the document.. We'll find a way to get it distributed to

folks as it becomes available as an online. link, an electronic document, as a USGS professional

papers series.. There are two major divisions in the handbook

outlined, the first of which is understanding. sea level change. In that section, I cover

some of the tools and methodologies for reconstructing. and observing sea level rise related to, and

I'll break that outline down further.. The second major component are the various

tools, decision support tools and models and. databases and the like that have been used

for simulating sea level rise effects on coastal. ecosystems. That'll be the latter half of

this presentation by way of example used in. the deal.

With understanding sea level change, to make. sure the readership understands where we've

been and where we're going and the respect. of how these models have been used and what

value they represent.. We go through a basic understanding of the

Earth's hydrosphere. That is that the volume. of water that's in Earth's hydrosphere is

finite, but the form of that water, the different. types that it can take, is dynamic.

Meaning, more in ocean or less on some land,. as I'll show.

Secondly, different methodologies and the. understanding that we have of the effects

of plate tectonics, glaciation and ice melt. on the rise and fall of sea level, affected

mostly by the change in size of ocean basins,. the impact of planetary cycles, and the more

recent melt period of record.. Then, I'll take a section that's on the contemporary

sea level record that highlights the value. of tide gauge records, long term, and also,

the more short term, but more recent satellite. altimetry records.

Effectively show how those records, while. often reported as being different or expressing

different rates of sea level, are more compatible. than people might realize.

I hope to cover some of that during this presentation,. as well as how, used together, tell us a lot

more about the land motion aspects and subsidence. of different coastal sectors of the coast.

Then, lastly, in this section, talk about. the national climate change assessment of

2012, where we now have new future projections. for sea level, which are used in most models

in some form or fashion to project the potential. change of sea level.

We start with the Earth's hydrosphere, which. is a finite water supply, but the question

is, where is it in the hydrosphere? 97 percent. or 3/4 of the Earth's surface is covered by

water in our ocean basin. That's the largest. percent.

The rest of it that you see on this sheet. with regards to the glacial ice sheets, that

portion that's stored in the terrestrial component. on land surface and ground water, surface

water is less than three percent.. It's that three percent that fluctuates between

ice conditions that account for something. on the order of 120 meters of rise and fall

in the glaciation cycles, that I'll mention. more about here shortly.

Yet, one of the things that I highlight in. this paper is that, when we hear about climate

change projections, not for sea level, but. for say, temperature or precipitation, one

of the questions people should ask, if they. are hearing that a given region or sector

of the coast is going to become drier as a. function of precipitation record, that you

might be asking, well, where is it getting. wetter?

Because water is like energy, neither created. nor destroyed, it changes form.

The major changes that account for sea level. rise, of course, is the volumetric change

of input from ice melt. Then the other effect. is its actual temperature affect on water

expansion.. Because we've found in the reference material

that we use to prepare the report, different. values for the degree of expansion that can

be expected for, say, a 1 degree change in. ocean temperatures over 1,000 meters of depth.

We include in the handbook an appendix on. the functions of how water volume changes

with mass and with temperature. Not so much. that people will try to use it, but they'll

know where this information comes from.. As you can see, water volume for the same

mass of fresh water and salt water is different.. Here you have salt water at 35 parts per thousand,

compared to fresh water at 0 parts per thousand.. Given that they are at the same mass, they

occupy a different volume. Then, if you add. a component of added temperature, meaning

that warmer water takes up more volume than. colder water.

To answer the question I started with, which. is, using these functions that are included

in the appendix, 1 degree change in ocean. temperature over 1,000 meters for an average

ocean temperature of 17 degrees, going from. 17 to 18 represents a 23.03 centimeter rise

in sea level.. That explains that whole effect.

While it may not seem plausible to think in. terms of multimillions of years, in terms

of effects of change in sea level, but the. configurations of our ocean basins are affected

by the plate tectonic movements of our land. masses.

As they break up or consolidate over this. type of period, they've been causing differences

in ocean depths in such a way that over the. longer period leading up to the late Cretaceous

period, the ocean basin was decreasing.. Over that longer time period has now been

increasing.. This represents two different methodologies

using sediment stratigraphy, from two different. studies by Haq and others, '87, Kominz et

al. in 2008, utilizing different methods of. interpreting the sediment stratigraphy.

But both showing the same pattern of history. of decreasing and increasing ocean basin volume

over time, even though they're different in. magnitude and timing.

The other major effect that we see now in. the world of glaciation and over the period

of the last half million years of Pleistocene. epoch we have good data on various aspects

of our environment both in terms of oxygen. isotopes that are taken for foraminifera,

specimens in the ocean depths that can be. used to interpret sea level heights.

This has been done multiple times. This is. the first graph showing you the effect of

the planetary cycle of a Milankovitch time. period of approximating 90 to 100,000 years

of cooling and warming of the Earth, related. to the orbital cycle.

You're seeing four different cycles over this. 400 plus year cycle.

Then more currently, here in the contemporary. time, we're gone through ice melt that has

us, again, at a high sea level rise condition,. what we refer to as a high stand.

In contrast to a low stand when the Earth. has cooled down and more of that water is

back in an ice cap covering largely Northern. hemisphere.

Additional data sources of ice volume layers. and concentrations of CO2 gasses, all correspond

or are concomitant with this long history. and pattern of the effect of glaciation on

our sea levels.. It wasn't, but 12,000 years or less than 20,000

years ago, that sea levels were 120 meters. below current.

They're up for a period of time before we. can expect them to rise. Although, with the

increase of CO2, in 400 parts per million. as they are currently at this time, that's

part of the driving aspect of a greenhouse. effect and the fact that there's still 1 to

60 meters of available fresh water in ice,. that has the potential to melt without the

advent of another icing effect.. Then we look more currently in the Holocene

record and there are a number of these. We. pull this example from Balsillie and Donoghue,

2004, largely because it's a reconstruction. of a number of sources of data from the different

ocean systems globally.. From the Pacific, to the Red Sea, to the Caribbean,

looking at both foraminifera O18 sample material. and corals.

The same could be taken from carbon dating. from mangrove, peats, and other things, where

this corresponding curve of the ice melt of. the last 20,000 years since the last glacial

maximum is replicated quite beautifully, with. a number of different types of biological

and geological data sets for the most part.. Here again, we're at current a high stand

of sea level that's been fluctuating and has. influenced marine terracing along our coastline.

This is part of the confidence that we have. of some of the factors, both in terms of planetary

cycles and orbital cycles that contribute. to sea level rise.

Then we bring it up to more contemporary sea. level records of the last 100 or 200 years,

for which we have numerous longterm tide gauge. records that have been identified in geologically

stable environments.. That means that the land component is not

necessarily moving, either by uplift or by. sinking, such that a reliable estimate of

longterm sea level rise is on the order of. one to two millimeters per year.

Then you see an overlap of the shorter satellite. record of about the last 22 decades, and in

many cases it's reported at a global mean. sea level of about 3.3 or 3.4 millimeters

per year.. Many times this is reported as an evidence

of acceleration of sea level rise in contrast,. to longterm tide gauge records.

Part of this handbook and our exercise is. to show that it matters how you compare different

rates and different methods, and that there. are some rules that are best applied.

First of all, that each coastline, aside from. the eustasy factors that we've talked about

in terms of ocean volume, icemelt, and thermal. expansion of sea level, which we're calling

the eustasy aspect.. There are other factors that are different

related to the astronomical and meteorological. conditions that account for a change in sea

level height, together with a change in surface. elevation, which can be affected as a function

of the land subsiding, or deposition on the. land, or the tilt of the land form, or the

larger land mass as a function of isostatic. rebound or glacial rebound from release of

ice weight on the system is another example.. It's the combination of both this change in

sea height and land height that makes up for. an effective sea level rise at a given at

location, or what's called a local or relative. mean sea level. That is different for every

location for all those factors that are involved.. As a case example used in the handbook, we

look at relative sea level rise for the Northern. Gulf Coast, where they share the same coastline

and are fairly proximal to each other and/or. the same body of water.

Here we have the example of Pensacola in northwest. Florida on a stable geology that approximates

that same longterm trend that I showed in. the earlier slide, on the order of two millimeters

per year.. In contrast with the Louisiana Delta Plain

of the Mississippi River, Grand Isle which. is five times greater than Pensacola, at around

10 millimeters per year, or one centimeter. per year rate.

In contracts to Galveston, Texas, on the Chenier. Plain which also has a high rate of sea level

rise, not as much.. I'm going to make a little bit of a point

here to show that part of the discoveries. of doing this handbook and putting together

the illustrations is that, Galveston is less. about a natural effect of alluvial deposits

compacting as it is about removal of groundwater. causing subsidence.

Records that are well known for the Houston,. Galveston area's respect to roads and housing

constructions.. If we look at the more contemporary or the

more recent satellite record over the last. two decades, the US Topex, the Poseidon, and

Jason satellite missions were commissioned. at different times over this period, and are

combined into a comprehensive record over. this period.

You're seeing a 10week record for each one. of these points, where the satellites are

doing a measurement from space.. As opposed to tide gauge on the shoreline

and reading the water level from the basin. or from the bottomup, this is from the topdown

of electromagnetic pulses that are sent to. the earth.

The fact that, rather than being stationary. like a tide gauge in the same harbor or same

location, the satellites are always on a track.. Not necessarily sampling from the same specific

location of the ocean, but always gathering. some level of information of the height of

the ocean body.. Here you see that the trend over this 20year

record, which is approximate to a 19year tidal. epic, which in effect provides some of the

variation that you can expect astronomically,. due to all the arrangements of the gravitational

forces of the moon and the planetary alignments.. This provides you this accounting that we

see which is the 3.4 millimeters per year. slope, in the record.

The European community also has a satellite. called AVISO. We also downloaded and stripped

the data for this, as well, to compare with. the US Topex, Poseidon, Jason merged set that

I showed you.. The two sets are very compatible. In some

cases the AVISO fills in data gaps for their. satellite with the U.S. record, but both are

providing a lot of confidence that these records. are genuinely providing a good measurement

of the change in ocean or sea height altimetry. over this period of time, of record.

Again, the same rate on the order of 3.42. or there about for this 10week remeasurement

record that's needed.. I'm going to make the point and show again

in the record that tide gauge and satellite. records are very compatible, but in doing

so, we have to be talking about rectifying. to the same datum so that they are compatible

in the sense of the reference that you're. referring to.

That you're comparing the same time periods. involved and that your records are complete,

that there are no data gaps. This is a problem. when looking at tide gauge records over the

continent, or for any given location.. NOAA has historically recalculated the sea

level trends for many of these more permanent. gauges that you see along the coastline of

North America, and such.. In this case, I've trimmed the record to look

at the same period of record as the satellites,. so that you get a fair analysis or comparison

between gauges and between satellites.. As you can see, there are evidence of records

of sea level that is falling effectively,. not so much because we're losing eustasy in

the oceans, but because the land is lifting. that much faster over this same time period.

In other cases the degree of sea level rise. on a regional basis is less or more, depending

on the location.. Again, the component the tide gauges include

is not only the eustasy aspect, but what's. happening in terms of the land motion aspect

of whether it's subsiding or uplifting.. If we go back to the Gulf of Mexico example

of sites, if we to attempt to detrend, to. isolate, the degree of how much these gauges

are representing a land motion change, we. have to convert the satellite record from

a 10week record to monthly record, which adjusts. the rate again to 3.32 millimeters per year.

In effect, for the same period of record,. the gauges around the Gulf of Mexico, Key

West, Pensacola, Grand Isle, and Galveston. are all rising at a faster rate than the sea

level.. For many people this is a confusing element

that we wanted to bring into the education. in this handbook.

The longterm record for these gauges is a. much slower rate of sea level rise, but for

the same comparative period these gauges are. showing a rise effect greater than the satellite.

The difference of which is some degree of. land motion that can be attributed to either

local subsidence, or the tilt of the land. form, or some other things that we don't explain

here.. Then if we look at the tidal epic period of

prior to the 1994, 2012, going back in time,. we see that there are rates greater or lesser

and comparable to the current rate.. Effectively, this might imply that there's

not that strong of evidence for an absolutely. acceleration or deceleration. That it's more

or less holding similarly for this period. of record.

The contrast, again, going back to Galveston,. is that you have some periods of record where

there are even higher rates of sea level which. are more about the land motion effect.

Which in this case, is a period of time post. World War II and prior to some local recognition

of subsidence rates related to groundwater. withdrawal.

Here you're seeing that there's evidence of. the influence of man of different subsidence

rates, that I associate more with the groundwater. withdrawal effect than anything that's the

property of the compaction of the types of. sediments in those locations.

Then, when you look at the Key West record. without the satellite record or residual satellite

record, you see the same thing I showed before.. We illustrate this with both linear and curvilinear

fits so that there is a land motion effect. that, even though it's a stable geology...Same

with Pensacola, which is about the same rate.. Then, for Grand Isle, weave in the fact that

while, again, we're expecting to see a more. constant residual rate due to subsidence of

deltaic components, the early part of this. record is relatively flat with a curvilinear

acceleration here toward the end.. I'm not offering any explanation, I'm showing

that this is the value in use of both gauge. records and satellite records that are more

compatible with each other than what, in many. cases, has been reported.

Then, Galveston, for the more recent tidal. epic, for this period, 1994, having a reduced

land motion effect. It's almost similar to. Pensacola and Key West.

Meaning that there is some evidence that due. to restricted groundwater withdrawal, that

rate has slowed down.. For the benefit of modeling, there's a need

to have the future sea level rise projections. that are generated from climate models, general

circulation models, and to look at the potential. range of possibilities.

In this case, from the lowest, which is a. two millimeter per year record, which is business

as usual or the historic record extended in. the future, which is the low case scenario.

Which, it's only likely to be at least that. much or more. Then, some intermediate possibilities

of 0.5 and up to 1.2 millimeters and in some. cases, adjusted in the 2012 above previous

IPC reports of 2001 and 2007, as high as two. meters over the next century or by 2100.

These are the kind of projections that many. land managers and municipal coastal planners

and practitioners are concerned about, and. trying to make adaptation plans and strategies

in lieu of.. There's a range of different types of predictive

models for sea level rise that are highlighted. in the report for the way we categorized them

or identified them by their properties, and. characteristics.

We established about six different types of. groups of models from sea level rise simulation,

and inundation models that are largely about. the change in hydrology, GIS sea level rise

mapping tools, which are decision support. tools that are built on GIS capacities of

water over land predictions, wetland change. models, which incorporate habitat considerations

in terms of ability to keep pace or the relationships. that can affect what type of habitat precedes

another habitat under different submergence. rules.

There are a class of tools and methodologies. for observing surface elevation and shoreline

change. We talk about those models as well. as a group.

Then there's an evolving group of models called. niche based or species distribution models

that are based more on climate envelope considerations. of change and temperature and precipitation

at, also, sea level.. Then more sophisticated ecosystem models that

deal with leaf to landscape predictive capability. of species and organism level changes, in

terms of effects at the leaf layer all the. way to the landscape to the stand level, where

changes in CO2 in the atmosphere and everything. else can have some feedback effect in these

models.. Along with the direct impacts of flooding

from sea level rise.. The layout of the different model groups that

I've identified are put out in attribute tables. by each group. In this case, you're looking

at the sea level rise simulation inundation. models.

We did our best to be as exhaustive or comprehensive. in search of the literature and Internet and

whatnot to categorize and to describe some. of these different models.

Here you see this collective group that's. identified and what agency/organization has

developed the model, what kind of scale does. it operate at, what is its spatial resolution

that's identified. On what temporal scale. does it operate?

What are some of the input parameters that. are required to run the model or to produce

output? What are the output parameters of. the model?

Then, what are the citations in terms of where. can I learn more about that model. In the

body of the handbook are some abbreviated. descriptions of each of these models that

are illustrated.. One thing that's not included that was asked

for in both the pre handbook feedback sessions. with partners across the Gulf Coast and thereafter,

was, could you add a component of how well. the models perform and things like that?

Which got into more of whether we could test,. evaluate, or do a sensitivity analysis on

the models, which was not possible and was. not within the scope of the project.

One of the things that continues to come up. because people want to read about these different

models, but have someone's expert opinion. or a process that gives them a review of goods

that we might do when we buy a TV or some. other appliance that you want to know, how

do they stack up against each other.. That's not included. There's nothing like

that included in this report.. Among the sea level rise simulation inundation

models that are highlighted in the handbook,. I can illustrate, easily, the SLRRP, Sea Level

Rise Rectification Program, as one step through. of how the models are described.

This is a model that I developed for a Department. of Transportation Gulf Coast study, where

they wanted to know how different transportation. sector features and assets could be impacted

by sea level rise.. That would be rail, roads, ports, harbors

and what elevations are those assets at.. Then, if choosing a near approximate gauge

of location, the model uses historic observed. data from tide gauges allowing a user to specify

or accept a historic condition or customize. it with a new subsidence or eustatic rate

that effectively creates a projected sea level. rise with all the numerical attributes of

monthly astronomical and meteorological record,. which is real, into the future above what

the trend line was for that gauge over that. period of record.

In this case, the user could select a global. change scenario or do a customized deal. If

the feature that they're looking at, wetland. or rail or road, was at a one meter elevation,

NAVD88, this model rectifies both the water. level record and the orthometric level of

the land surface or the feature together,. so that we're dealing with apples and apples.

It shows you at what point for that given. climate scenario or sea level scenario that

is selected, that it might take 36 years or. the year 2036 before you'd get a monthly or

multiple monthly inundation of that feature.. Then again, because of the variability, maybe

without, for a period of months or years.. Then, eventually, over a 30 year or longer

time period, before you'd get to the point. where that feature would be permanently or

subsequently submerged over the time period,. compromised.

Of the GIS sea level rise mapping tools, these. are the ones that use data sources that are

readily available. These are also known as. the “bathtub models”.

These are visualization tools that effectively. use some understanding of elevation of the

landform and an aspect of generally arbitrary. water level that's unrectified.

It doesn't matter what the rectification is. or what the referenced datum is necessarily.

They're arbitrarily pulled together and effectively. says that, whenever this water level condition

exceeds a land elevation basis, whatever source,. national elevation data set, LiDAR. It can

be whatever source.. These are three primary examples, the NOAA

sea level viewer, University of Arizona map. visualization tool, and the USGS sea level

rise animations that I can show you visually. and are described in the section on these

models.. There are more of them than what I'm showing,

but these are good ones that are used and. have been developed with pretty refined capacities.

You're seeing a window here. As you execute. the program on the NOAA sea level viewer,

it allows the viewer to increase the sea level. rise effect up from one to six feet depth.

There are some other features that allow you. to effectively simulate a marsh accretion

and a few other things.. Then it gives you a result in field of view

of where that flood extent and that shoreline. extent would take place in a future condition

with that kind of, in this case, six feet. sea level rise bow.

These are very handy tools that work very. well and are of more value education wise

to appreciate what could happen more than. what might technically happen at those specific

locations.. This may have a lot of assumptions about hydrologic

connectivity, and things that I'm not going. to go into.

The same for the University of Arizona web. map visualization, a good tool that they keep

making a few changes to make some of the water. aspects a little more rectified to the land

datum and the like.. It's a water over land approximation that

doesn't have a lot of the understanding of. the biology or the geology of the location.

It does an overlay exercise of the data sets. themselves.

Same for the USGS sea level rise animations,. with a little more socioeconomic considerations

of population levels that may be impacted. and other aspects of highways and cities and

such, and a much broader range of sea level. potential in terms of rise potential that

can traumatize the whole effect.. In this case, up to six meters, which is well

above current IPCC sanctioned sea level rise. projections. We're within the range of plausibility

if we have some serious ice melt conditions. that may result.

The next class of models described in the. handbook are the wetland change models, that

basically consider the specific habitat type.. Don't have any kind of species level or organizational

level at the local plant or necessary level,. but with generic habitat types that are described

often in the various sources of information. that are used, like National Wetland Inventory

data or TM imagery.. These models incorporate a rule set of potential

changes of habitat switching, as it's often. called, from one type to another based on

the degree or change in land surface submergence.. The Coastal Ecological Landscape Spatial Simulator

has a long history, and has been used in a. number of different watersheds. It's still

in production mode for application.. It basically uses a mass balance approach

to the exchange of hydrology from cell to. cell and uses fairly generic saltwater, fresh,

and swamp conditions.. Again, relatively rudimentary, but something

more than just water over land process to. affect change. It has other features about

it in terms of potential for subsidence, or. for accretion processes to occur in these

select habitats that can be used in the output.. A fairly common model now being used and adopted

by certain agencies and NGOs and a very utilitarian. and very visible or model with display functions

and everything else so that you can see a. more comprehensive range of habitat types.

It has a little more complicated rule set. that can be applied of how one habitat, under

a given submergence condition can either accrete. and keep pace or doesn't keep pace with sea

level, but converts from one type to another. and is widely used with the SLAMM model.

Another version, it's spatial but it's more. based on functional attributes of why you

have salt marshes in certain locations of. a certain tidal range, it's a Sea-Level Over

Proportional Elevation Model.. It considers how the different relative sea

level conditions at a given coastal reach.... In this case at a county level, for salt marsh

effectively shows the displacement that would. take going up slope of that habitat type in

a functional design that's quite elegant for. regional and national level scale application

to project how much of the land form and how. much marsh migration would take place up slope

under these circumstances.. Surface elevation and shoreline erosion models

that we highlighted a number of different. types, they're not necessarily used quite

in the same way to predict a change in shoreline,. I'm not sure shoreline, but habitat condition

at a park or regional scale.. Our tools that are used in other aspects of

research or making predictions for shore land. change that are very important to land managers

at the moment.. The two that I'm going to highlight, do not

necessarily exclude others is the Coastal. Vulnerability Index and the Surface Elevation

Tables and briefly introduce you to that.. Other methodologies like marsh geochronology,

which uses cesium137 or lead210 dating to. get an idea of whether marshes are keeping

pace and what kind of accretion rates are. there.

Salt marsh stratigraphy in evolution models,. which are keeping up with the aggression or

transgression of a coastal interface at a. marsh and trying to make predictions based

on the amount of subsidies of sediment, and. the properties of the species involved to

accrete organically.. Then tidal channel network models, we introduce

some of that. We're looking at how, as sea. level rises, how it affects the hydrology

component of erosion within these small tidal. channels at the coastal interface.

The Coastal Vulnerability Index is a USGS. product, but basically, it utilizes the empirical

information that's already available in historic. map sets dating back hundreds of years of

shoreline change, and essentially projects. probability indexes for degree of erosion

at a meter per year rate.. You immediately get a larger view at the regional

or coastal view of what shorelines are more. stable, and others that are more erodible,

and this is another model type that we describe.. A technique that's being widely distributed

now, both by different agencies, state and. federal, and NGOs for different land forms

is the surface elevation table.. Which effectively is a benchmark driven down

into the substrate of, on wetland soils, equivalent. to a benchmark on land that can be monitored

and releveled over time to determine how much. it's subsiding over those periods of records

at different depths.. Because it uses a reference from up top of

distance down to the marsh surface, or whatever. surface it is, pond or other, that over time

you can capture the rate of accretion and. sedimentation that's going on with the inclusion

of marker horizons. Some of that information. is also provided.

Niche based species distribution models say. basically that each species has a unique climate

condition for which it's most optimum in its. range.

It's tied to a particular precipitation or. temperature record. While that's a concept

that is driving some models to look at continental. scale changes, temperature or predictions

of temperature are done over continental scale.. This is an example of a species that is attuned

to sea level condition more than it is to. a necessarily a climate precip or temperature

range. This is bald cypress.. A lot of this was work done through research

studies I was involved in. It gives a good. illustration of how, at a given elevation

contour, you can find the larger extent and. how that ties into the history of the geologic

era of the late Pleistocene when the coastal. plain was largely shaped.

That sea level drives cypress up slope and. they persisted over this time period, excepting

for conditions, more arid conditions in the. Texas side of the system perhaps due to glacial

aridity in the northeast section.. These are alternative models that are going

to be important.. Here's another example from work looking at

geologic record of evidence of mangrove that. we think of as tropical in Florida, but there's

record of increasing evidence or expansion. of mangroves both in the northern hemisphere,

here in the US, and also in the southern hemisphere.. The geologic record says that the Earth was

warm enough in the Eocene period that mangrove. expansion was much further than what it is

even today.. This level of information and these kinds

of models will make our understanding of how. our land units can be changed over time.

An example of a nichebased model for climate. envelope is another mangrove model that is

looking at how temperature limits growth or. expansion, and that freezes that injure tropical

plants, in this case, mangroves, has an impact.. In a future climate when it's going to be

more warm, it can be expected that different. scenarios of sea level can allow for greater

or lesser expansion of mangroves replacing. temperate salt marshes as we move north.

The last set of models are the Leaf to Landscape. Models. I know I'm pushing time. I hope you'll

stay with me.. The WETLANDS, SELVA, and MANGRO models, basically

are operating at a plant level, predicting. how one plant can shade another, how leaf

function both synthetically and/or the effect. of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Along with other factors at the site for landscape. level like sea level rise, and flooding conditions,

and temperature can all impact species distribution. on the landscape.

In this case, a speciesbased occurrence nomogram. for northwest Florida for these different

types showing where the zone of interface. between marsh and forest ecotone and where

impact of storm tides and high salinity wash. have led to impact of dieback in these systems.

Effectively, this information was used in. a habitat matrix probability context to push

sea level upslope over the period of record. showing how marsh would migrate at a species

level and replace and/or impact the interface. with the fresh water forested systems, and

what that might mean in terms of area.. A more sophisticated model at the stem level

dealing with individual regeneration patterns. and individual tree orientation in terms of

shade impacts is the MANGRO model connected. with the SELVA model.

The two working hierarchically across an up. and down scale from the leaf to the landscape

effectively, being able to predict how mangroves. would move upslope in a higher sea level condition

and replace fresh water marshes, salinity,. and sea water moved upslope.

The handbook is laid out with this larger. understanding and information about the history

of sea level in a geologic context.. The more recent context of how we're observing

sea level with tide gauges and satellite information,. and how that information is more compatible

than some people have made it sound.. The various types and different kinds and

details, characteristics of the different. kinds of models that are being applied to

look at the impact of future sealevel on our. coastal ecosystems at a part region or continental

scale.. I'm hoping that this handbook that has been

peer reviewed but is still in some format. and editing changes, is going to be released

sometime in August 2014.. I credit some things to the Southeast Climate

Science Center I got that backwards, sorry. about that for funding this work and for setting

up the webinar presentation. That concludes. my presentation, if, by chance, there's an

opportunity to take questions.. Ashley: Excellent. Thank you, Tom.

We do have a few question that have come in. already. One from Kimberly and it says, "Do

high and low points on the satellite correspond. with tides? Also, are the subsistence rates

reflected on the statistics from page 17 titled. "Gauge ranges"?"

OK. The first question is, "Do high and low. points on satellite correspond with tides?"

Tom: I wouldn't use the word tides, but. the correspondence between tide gauge records

and the satellite record is it fits very well. in terms of the seasonal and most points.

We attempted to try to isolate a record near. shoreline, which would correspond with each

of the gauges.. The Gulf of Mexico as a whole is a bathtub.

You can use readily one gauge to effectively. predict another one very good for this monthly

record of both the tide gauge and satellite. record as a whole. They line up and correlate

very highly.. "Is land moving up when tide is going up?"

I'm not real sure how to answer that. There's. a degree of which the water is going up that

the satellites are recording. The tide gauges. are showing the same thing.

It's that at the same time or over the same. period those tide gauges may be going through

a more localized process of sinking or even. uplifting.

Ashley: Then we have another question; I’m. scrolling back up here, from John. It says,

"What causes the large annual scale fluctuations. in sea level in the satellite data?"

Tom: Those are all the seasonal trends of. water, where, in the Gulf of Mexico, you have

the warmer waters and, in some cases, you're. looking at storm effects from hurricanes and

other things that effectively are moving water.. This is a seasonality effect of colder water/warmer

water.. Ashley: Then we have a question from Sean.

He says, "Does the manual discuss the relative. reliability of different methods of modeling?"

Tom: No. You mean in terms of either a sensitivity. analysis or a certainty analysis kind of thing?

There's no indepth evaluation of the models. themselves.

The code or the properties of how they function. are not treated in the handbook, only the

functionality of the models and the characteristics. of their makeup and their use.

In some cases, the models have gone through. a validation or verification, and there's

a note to that aspect or whether they were. unverified things. No hindcasts or other type

of exercise was done to show that the results. can be reasonably trusted or accepted.

Do you want me to watch these? From Nicole. Metzger, she says, "Many of the tools shown

are specific to the Gulf and Atlantic Coast,. where sealevel rise levels can be simply added

and they result in an inundation map to the. new elevation contour to produce reasonable

results.. However, in the West Coast and Pacific Coast,

runup dominates the coastal flood hazards.. Runup is not linearly proportionate. In other

words, you cannot simply add sealevel rise. to the stillwater levels to estimate the effect

of future scenarios.. The engineering analyses must be recalculated

using the new stillwater level inputs and. may result in very different responses at

the shoreline.. What tools are available to address the sealevel

rise effects on the Pacific Coast?" The same. would apply to the runup of surge bubbles

from hurricanes in the Gulf Coast, which is. beyond the scope of the handbook to deal with

to the longterm impacts or effects of sealevel. rise necessarily.

I would agree with you that, even on a regional. level, if I showed you the satellite record

for the Pacific Coast, the eustatic sea level. record is actually closer to zero.

Although that's not what's commonly reported. since more of the water conditions of the

PacificAtlantic are tropical waters, where. it's a more comparable rate to the Gulf of

Mexico.. Ashley: Thank you. Is there any data for

Hawaii and other coastal territories?. Tom: When you say data, there are tide gauge

records for Hawaii. That's true worldwide.. There are locations of tide gauges that are

maintained by different nationalities or organizations.. They are largely reported in the Permanent

Mean Sea Level Database and website.. They're available publicly to download, just

as the NOAA gauge information, NOAA Tides. Online or historic information. Their gauges

can be downloaded from NOAA’s site, as well.. There are records for Hawaii. Of course for

the satellite, you'd have to strip the data. that overlays the portion of the Pacific around

Hawaii to contrast those sets of records.. Ashley: OK, thank you. A question from Walter

It says, "In view of the increased attention. to sealevel rise in climate change, is there

any effort to standardize by convention a. common datum?"

Tom: In a global sense I don't know that. that there is. I can't say that.

Eventually people recognize the value, or. need or whatever, and they also recognize

some of the complications involved in terms. of an accepted geoid, or whatever.

The satellites themselves represent some kind. of orbit. That can be described mathematically,

so if that's used as a reference.... That's kind of geodesy question that is more

involved than I should try to tackle or answer. on this call, or relative to the field. The

important thing is, though, we're back to,. "It's important to compare apples to apples."

Records that are of the same time period are. necessary. Records that are complete, meaning

there's no missing data because that'll change. the slope readily.

Because there are such strong seasonal records,. as you can see even on this satellite record,

if you take off the high of one or the low. of one or the other, it can have an effect.

Of course, more or less depending on whether. you're in the middle or the record or at the

ends of the record but, even then, missing. records or gaps present problems to compare

rates.. The other aspect is that, it's best to compare

them referenced to the same datum.. Ashley: Excellent, and our last question

is from Andrew. It says, "What are most important. in the future investments for the decreasing

uncertainty in sealevel rise response, wetland. change models? And, Is it better evaluation

data, more information on accretion, better. highmarsh, lowmarsh models, or models that

account for more of geophysical or biological. processes?"

Tom: That's a great question. There's a. lot in there in terms of how to improve existing

models that we do have, because in all cases. they're oversimplified in terms of the actual

biological and geological processes involved.. In many cases, my personal opinion is that

a lot of what we're seeing in terms of wetland. loss, particularly for me in Louisiana, where

I am, and an example that was given for Texas,. it's more about man than it is about nature.

We've changed the tidal constituents of our. basins by digging deeper harbors, having deep

drafts, navigation canals further inland,. so there are a host of complicating factors

beyond the more simplified, "Do I have good. LiDAR?"

In the case of LiDAR, some of that is still. not as good as people indicate. In certain

cases, I'm not saying in all cases.. One of the bigger things that we need to understand

is the feedback processes that are geophysical. and biological, that are much more complicated

than what we have looked at before.. On the accretion rate, people have tried to

use SETs or geochronology dating methods as. a sole constituent that stays fixed or static

over time and, effectively, I don't think. that's the case.

Plants are getting the message, when it's. higher than normal sea level anomalies, to

grow new roots. Factors that can complicate. whether they do that effectively or not are

still not well understood.. In most cases, it's interrupted by conditions

where we've impounded the coast, which as. has been done in a lot of cases.

That's a great question. It's pretty loaded. with a lot of possibilities.

I would agree that we need a better understanding. of our geophysical and biological feedbacks.

The better record shows that because we've. got peats, marshes, and mangrove systems that

have kept pace from sealevel for the last. thousands of years, because we can date the

carbon, proves or shows that there is a capacity. to keep pace with sealevel.

It may be some more of the other things that. we do in our coastal settings, by way of management

or interrupted effects of surface runoff.. There's a host of possibilities where groundwater

withdrawal, all those things combine to aggravate. or amplify the possibility for plant species

to keep pace or to hold ground under these. sets of conditions.

Ashley: Excellent. Thank you, Tom.