Economy is in a tech recession, not an overall recession: Ryan Payne on Mornings with Maria

Channel: Payne Capital

to be two percent versus the guidance that they. initially gave us of 5.3% this is a major problem

this morning for Target stock it's down seven and. two-thirds percent but it's also taking the rest

of the market down with that look at where we. are Dow industrial's down 232 points right now

at the lows because of this news coming from. Target yesterday of course was the first trading

day following Amazon's 20 for 1 stock split. this is the fourth time Amazon has split its

stock since going public in 1997 but Amazon. is right in the middle of what is clearly a

slowdown in retail we're seeing it at Target. we're seeing it across the board in retail

Amazon shares are down 2% right now I. know you say we are in a technical recession but

not an overall economic recession what does that. mean well I think tech specifically has problems

here right I mean we're seeing layoffs across the. board there was like close to 1800 tech layoffs

last month we had Elon Musk come out and say. basically, I need to cut 10% of my workforce

and I think that's what's being reflected in. the market right now I mean the only bear market

we're seeing is in tech you know I give Dennis. props for his call but it's really concentrated in

tech right now if you look at the S&P 500 if you. underweighted tech and you look at an equal weight

S&P 500 it's only down like 8% for the. year and if I look at a value portfolio if you

think about like names like JP Morgan, Berkshire. Hathaway, I look at pharmaceutical stocks you know

basket of those stocks right now collectively. is only down 1% for the year versus

tech down 20% for the year so clearly what I think. we're seeing here Maria right now is we're getting

a repricing interest rates have definitely gone. a lot higher we know that inflation's higher now

but it's disproportionately hitting parts of the. market like disruptive technology Amazon's a

great example of that it's done terrible this year. but you know value stocks are holding up well I

mean I run diversified portfolios for my clients. you know we're down less than 10% it's a

run-of-mill correction in a big bull market if you. you know as I've been saying every week so once

once you get outside of the fact that tech is in a. slow down you're seeing the layoffs there because

last time I looked we had another 390,000 to the. economy last month and wages are going higher

and that's not an overall recessionary environment. I don't think we're going into recession I've been

saying it week after week and you know at this. point I think it's just about allocating your

portfolio correctly and that's the bottom line. here and all due respect to dentists well I mean

so you say it's a tech technology recession. but what about Target it's warning of

weaker margins it's taking the whole market down. with it Ryan so yeah you're right it's selective

you shouldn't own tech I guess but do you not. own retail as well then well not every retail

right look at Nordstrom's they came out fantastic. earnings the other week so I think it depends on

the retailer Maria as well right that's not. germaine to every single retailer that's out there

right now so I think even if you look at retail I. mean you're only talking about a couple specific

names let's face it overall earnings went up last. quarter they're going to go up again this quarter

and we should have positive GDP growth this. quarter as well so I think at the end of the day

you have certain areas yes but the overall. market again we're still in that run-of-the-mill

correction and I still think this year with. you know we talked about inflation going up

you want to own stocks that pay dividends. they increase their cash flow over time

you know that's a great inflation hedge cash is. trash that's not where you want to be right now.